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An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
Who’s ahead in the national polls? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Who’s ahead in the national polls? Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls.
In 2020, polls overestimated Joe Biden’s margin over Donald Trump by about 4.5 points on average. If polls underestimate Harris by the same amount, she will win all of the states 538 currently rates as toss-up states up to and including Florida.
Who’s ahead in the national Republican primary polls? Updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Who’s ahead in the national polls? An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 midterm elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight
When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here .