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An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. KEY. ESTIMATE. 95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE.
An interactive electoral map derived from FiveThirtyEight's probabilistic model for the 2020 presidential election.
An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls,...
When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and...
In 2020, polls overestimated Joe Biden’s margin over Donald Trump by about 4.5 points on average. If polls underestimate Harris by the same amount, she will win all of the states 538 currently...
Who’s ahead in the national polls? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.
Choose whether President Trump or Joe Biden will win each state in the 2020 presidential election and we’ll recalculate whether they have a path to 270 electoral votes and what their chance is of...
When you first open the interactive, it’ll show you a map that’s shaded based on our presidential forecast and the 40,000 simulations we run each time we update the model. Deep-blue California ...