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LAST UPDATED Oct. 1. Our latest forecast shows a toss-up race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Harris has a 56-in-100 chance of winning the majority of...
See the latest polling averages for the 2024 presidential race, updated daily based on state and national polls. Compare the results for Harris and Trump in different states and scenarios.
See the latest electoral map projection based on 538's 2024 Election Forecast. Use the map to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast scenarios.
Let’s cut to the chase: So, who’s gonna win the election? Well, honestly, we don’t know — but we can give you our best probabilistic guess. This is the landing page for the 2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast.
Today 538 published our official forecast for the 2024 presidential election. The model builds on our general election polling averages by asking not just what our best guess is about who is leading the presidential race today, but what range of outcomes are possible for the actual election in November.
For 2024, 538 built a new presidential election forecast model from the ground up. This article explains how we did it: the ingredients that go into the forecast, how we process them and how we ultimately end up with a set of several thousand potential outcomes for the election. 1. Calculate polling averages.
538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society.