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An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast. All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris. đź•’ Last update: 1:30 p.m., Friday, October 4. Another day, another few polls added to the model, and still very little change to the overall forecast.
Latest updates. Our latest forecast shows a toss-up race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Harris has a 56-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral...
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted...
She’s now up by 2.9 points in our polling average, as compared with 2.2 points on the day of the debate (and 2.0 points on the day after the debate, when there wasn’t yet any post-debate polling included in the averages). Arguably — arguably! — this is even a little conservative.
538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society.
Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. He is the author of “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t.”. Apr. 25, 2023.
His lead is larger than Clinton’s in every battleground state, and more than double her lead nationally. Our model forecasts Biden to win the popular vote by 8 percentage points, 1 more than ...
Let’s go through five basic scenarios for polling accuracy: 1. The polls are mostly quite accurate. This does not mean they’ll be perfectly accurate, because they won’t be. But take this to imply that they’ll be in the upper half of the accuracy distribution by recent standards — not a big miss like in 2020.
Silver, a renowned polling expert, statistician, and author of the “Silver Bulletin,” has the odds of Harris winning at 53% and Trump at 47%, which he notes, “is awfully close to 50-50.”