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Tropical Tidbits. Weather Nerds. Track and intensity guidance. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Regional single-model guidance. Tropical Tidbits: GFS. Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF. Tropical Tidbits: CMC. Tropical Tidbits: ICON. India Meteorological Department Several models. Regional ensemble model guidance. Weathernerds: GEFS (120 ...
Global models are more “general purpose” and can be applied to weather, well, globally. This means they might be used to forecast rain in the midwest one day and then turned around and used to forecast hurricane impacts the next. GFS is a great example of this, widely used for both general-purpose forecasting AND tropical cyclones.
Klotzbach: "Tropical Depression 2 has formed in central tropical Atlantic and forecast to become a #hurricane on 30 June at ~55°W. If forecast verifies, it would be farthest east that [a] June #hurricane has formed in tropical Atlantic (south of 23.5°N) on record, breaking old record set in 1933"
Models are initialized based on the conditions observed at 0,6,12,and 18 UTC, which is universal time. It takes a while, however, for the models to assimilate all the observations that correspond to that initialization time - that's the lag you see between the start of the graph and the beginning of each model's bars.
List of weather acronyms List of common tropical and non-tropical weather acronyms, curated by /u/dziban303. List of weather model abbreviations from Tropical Tidbits and the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee List of acronyms used to represent weather models in spaghetti plots and other technical discussions. List of coastal television livestreams
“An increase in tropical wave frequency and intensity is becoming likely over the next 10-12 days” is a forecast. The GFS is excellent at things like this, because the models can be run as fast as you can get the data. The different models can then be prepared.
so just to let you know, the GFS tab at tropical tidbits is the deterministic run. that is a high resolution, singular, model run. That's not worth much after about 5-6 days. HOWEVER, there is also another tab labeled GEFS. This is a slightly lower resolution, but the average of MANY model runs.
Tropical Tidbits. University of Albany. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Weather Nerds. Regional single-model guidance. Tropical Tidbits: GFS. Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF. Tropical Tidbits: CMC. Tropical Tidbits: ICON. Regional ensemble model guidance. GEFS (120 hours) ECENS (120 hours)
Tropical Tidbits is owned and maintained by Dr. Levi Cowan, who posts videos during an active storm, especially (but not always) when land impacts are anticipated. He is extremely good at explaining the complicated meteorology surrounding each storm and forecast without oversimplifying or hype.
By far my favorite watch for when the NHC is just doing some brief written forecasting and models can be all over the place. Always a solid watch to get a feel for what might be spooling up. Western gulf certainly more of a threat for good rain, hopefully just not Harvey type crap, as some areas there have already gotten too much recent rain.