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An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
There is a 38-in-100 chance that Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes. See a new scenario. 538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,”...
Who’s ahead in the national polls? Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Aug. 1, 2024 Sept. 1 Oct. 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60% Harris 48.6% Trump 45.9% Oct. 1, 2024 leader Oct. 1, 2024 leader Harris Harris +2.6. KEY.
We’ve gotten a few new polls since yesterday’s update but there’s very little movement in the model from day to day. Harris now leads by 3.4 points in our national polling average and has a 57 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.
Silver, a renowned polling expert, statistician, and author of the “Silver Bulletin,” has the odds of Harris winning at 53% and Trump at 47%, which he notes, “is awfully close to 50-50.”
The 538 team discusses how polls have underestimated Democratic and Republican support in the past and how unpredictable the direction of polling error can be.
Can we still accurately model elections in such chaotic times? Are prediction markets the future of news?Nate Silver thinks so - Nate is a renowned election ...