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An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
Our latest forecast shows a toss-up race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Harris has a 55-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes,...
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election.
Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls.
The 538 team discusses whether early voting data is a good indicator of who will win the 2024 presidential election.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker 1, 43.7 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 51 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of...
This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. The default view is Harris vs. Trump head-to-head.
It's the moment you've all been waiting for: Today, 538 launched our interactive polling averages for the 2024 presidential general election. They show incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump essentially tied in national polls and Trump with a tenuous lead in key swing states.
According to 538's latest election forecast, Vice President Kamala Harris has a 57-in-100 chance of winning the presidential election in November, while former President Donald Trump has a 42-in ...